Harvard’s Ken Rogoff now says he underestimated Bitcoin’s growth and the lack of strong U.S. regulations.
- Bitcoin has surged past $100,000, defying earlier predictions.
- Ken Rogoff expected tougher U.S. crypto policies by now.
- He now believes weak regulation helped Bitcoin’s rise.
Bitcoin Defied Expectations
Back in 2018, Ken Rogoff, who teaches at Harvard, said that Bitcoin (BTC) was more likely to fall to $100 than rise to $100,000. At the time, Bitcoin was trading under $10,000. But by 2024, BTC has climbed above $113,000. This growth shocked many traditional economists, including Rogoff.
A Missed Forecast
Rogoff has now admitted his prediction was wrong. In a recent post on social media platform X, he explained that he thought the U.S. government would create stricter rules for crypto. He believed that stronger laws would stop people from using Bitcoin for tax evasion or illegal trades.
The Role of the Underground Economy
The professor pointed to the large global underground economy, estimated to be worth $20 trillion. He said Bitcoin’s ability to support these unregulated transactions may have helped push its price upward. This demand has created a solid base, making BTC more valuable than he expected.
Concerns About Regulators
Rogoff also criticized regulators for possible conflicts of interest. He stated that some officials hold large amounts of cryptocurrency, which can affect how they create and enforce rules. He believes that more transparency is needed to ensure fairness in crypto policy.
Looking Ahead
In his new book, Our Dollar, Your Problem, Rogoff shares more views on how governments need to rethink their approach to cryptocurrencies. While he once believed Bitcoin’s limits were clear, he now sees it playing a larger role in how money moves around the world.
Source: coindesk.com
