Polymarket bettors lower odds of U.S. military action against Iran as talks gain traction.
- Polymarket sees drop in predicted U.S.-Iran conflict chances
- Axios reports possible diplomatic talks between U.S. and Iran
- Bitcoin price stabilizes after initial drop from conflict news
Lower Odds for Conflict on Polymarket
Traders on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, are now less worried about a U.S. military strike on Iran. The chance of such action happening before June 30 dropped to 46%, down from almost 67% the night before. This change followed news that U.S. officials may meet with Iran to discuss peace talks and a possible new nuclear deal.
Diplomatic Talks May Be in Progress
According to Axios, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff might meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The goal is to reduce tensions and stop the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. Although some Polymarket users still support a military move, the general outlook suggests a shift toward diplomacy.
Markets React to Geopolitical Risks
Last Friday’s attack by Israel on Iranian military sites led to a quick decline in the price of Bitcoin. It dropped to around $102,750, as traditional markets also showed stress. The Japanese yen gained value, and U.S. stocks fell. However, Bitcoin has since recovered and is trading at $106,700 now, showing that the market has calmed down a bit.
Trump’s Statement Adds Uncertainty
Former President Donald Trump has not confirmed any planned meetings. In a post on Truth Social, he said that Iran must not have nuclear weapons and urged Americans in Tehran to leave. This adds mixed signals to the situation, making it harder for traders and analysts to predict what comes next.
Source: coindesk.com
